Friday, October 21, 2011

Orbach Trips Over the AMO & Fails to See it

Updated on 10/22/11 at 11:09AM MDT
An additional timeframe analysis was added.
Post was reworded for clarity & consistency.

In a prior post, I destroyed a letter to the Wall Street Journal editor sent in by CAGW apologist Raymond L. Orbach. The perfectly natural AMO warming cycle was the foundation for that debunking.

The most recent AMO warming cycle began around 1976 and peaked around 1998. Now, we see a quote from Orbach himself wherein he stumbles upon the AMO warming cycle and still fails to see it.

Quoting Raymond L. Orbach:
“When I started looking at literature, I noticed that there was warming beginning in 1980”
Quoting the so-called “journalist”
who wrote this purely political propaganda piece:
“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that temperatures across the United States have increased by 1.5 degrees since the 1970s.”
True enough. Click here and chart NOAA annual data from 1975 through 2010. You’ll find a trend rate of 0.51F per decade over a period of roughly 3 decades and you can reasonably reach the same conclusion.

But, the time frame of 1975 through 2010 is egregiously cherry picked. It begins around the bottom of an AMO cooling cycle and ends around the top of an AMO warming cycle. Furthermore, click here and see that peer reviewed science finds “an estimated warm bias of about 30%” in the NOAA data (meaning the actual temperature increase over this cherry picked timeframe is more like 1.05F).

Any reasonable trend analysis would have to begin and end at a similar point in the AMO cycle. In each analysis below, I have selected start dates and end dates which reflect similar points in the AMO cycle based upon a Wikipedia chart of the AMO index and (more precisely) the raw data from NOAA from which that chart was derived.

An AMO cooling cycle bottomed out in 1913. The most recent AMO cooling cycle bottomed out in 1976. Click here and chart the annual average USA temperature over that time frame (1913 to 1976). You’ll find a CAGW busting trend rate of 0.01F per decade!

An AMO warming cycle peaked in 1933. The most recent AMO warming cycle peaked in 1998. Click here and chart the annual average USA temperature over that time frame (1933 to 1998). You’ll find a CAGW busting trend rate of 0.01F per decade!

Between these two extremes, let’s pick equivalent moments when the AMO cycle crossed the baseline in the chart. Start at 1925 (when an AMO warming cycle crossed the baseline) and end in 1995 (when the most recent AMO warming cycle crossed the baseline). Click here and chart the annual average USA temperature over that timeframe (1925 to 1995). You’ll find a CAGW busting trend rate of 0.00F per decade!

Finally, let’s compare the AMO warming cycle timeframe of the last 3 decades to the previous AMO warming cycle. An AMO warming cycle began in 1913 and peaked in 1933. Chart the average annual USA temperature over that timeframe (1912 to 1934). You’ll find a trend rate of 0.56F per decade (slightly higher than the 0.51F per decade figure cited by our so-called “journalist”).

Click here for some basic climate change science.
Click here to debunk the hysteria topic by topic.

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