8/6/10 Update - To monitor Obama’s epic economic failure, watch the Unemployment Rate graph and the Real Personal Income graph.
3/4/10 Update - Click here and ask if the recession is unofficially over. The question is relevant to the shading found in each chart below.
1) According to the NBER definition in place at the time this post was created, there are -- during a recession -- 6 main data points which normally show “significant decline… lasting more than a few months”:
“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”Note: On September 20, 2010, The NBER changed their definition. Click here for the current definition. Click here to examine the history of changes to their page containing their definition. They may have changed their definition -- among other reasons -- in order to bring their recent declarations on recession start and stop dates more in line with their definition. The new definition is much more ambiguous and (conveniently) makes it virtually impossible for anybody to present quantitative data which disputes either their declarations or recession centric political hyperbole. It almost seems a little too convenient.
2) Using the NBER definition in place at the time this post was created, let’s compare current conditions against past recessions since 1970. We’ll examine using all 6 parameters which the NBER indicate show “normally visible” decline during a recession. See the conclusions at the bottom of the charts:
Click the image to enlarge it and view the source data:
Primary Conclusion -
The total number of jobs lost in the current recession is certainly unprecedented since at least 1970. We can further note that unemployment has -- since 1970 -- NEVER before remained this high for this long.
This jobless recovery will surely go down in history as Obama’s Epic Failure.