Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Obama Got Some 'Splainin' to do - 700 Billion Dollar Bailout

Quoting NRO:

“One of the reasons so many bad mortgage loans were made in the first place is that Barack Obama’s celebrated community organizers make their careers out of forcing banks to do so. ACORN, for which Obama worked, is one of many left-wing organizations that spent decades pressuring banks and bank regulators to do more to make mortgages available to people without much in the way of income, assets, or credit. These campaigns often were couched in racially inflammatory terms. The result was the Community Reinvestment Act. The CRA empowers the FDIC and other banking regulators to punish those banks which do not lend to the poor and minorities at the level that Obama’s fellow community organizers would like. Among other things, mergers and acquisitions can be blocked if CRA inquisitors are not satisfied that their demands — which are political demands — have been met. There is a name for loans made to people who do not have the credit, assets, income, or down payment to qualify for a normal mortgage: subprime.”
Click the image & read the rest:
Click the image & read the rest
Click here for a directly related post.
Click here to read the primary post on this topic
(and all the rest).

Senator Dodd - Lap Dog


Click here for more cartoons.
Click here to read the primary post on this topic
(and all the rest).


What Price Stability?

Quoting James Dorn
(emphasis mine):

“The US Treasury's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's largest mortgage financers, was predictable.”

“In the past, Fannie and Freddie showered large sums on members of Congress to win votes and retain their privileged position. Although those payments are now illegal, Fannie and Freddie have many friends on Capitol Hill who believe the GSEs are essential to
[so-called] affordable housing; they will fight hard to maintain the status quo.”

“Preserving the status quo by maintaining Fannie and Freddie's crony capitalism would expand the size and scope of government, rather than make individuals responsible for their mistakes.”

“The takeover of Fannie and Freddie could cost taxpayers US$200 billon to US$300 billion - and far more if housing prices fail to stabilise.”
Click the image & read the rest:
Click the image & read the rest
Click here for the primary post on why this bailout is a TERRIBLE idea.
Click here to learn what caused this housing mess.


Socialized Risks, Private Rewards (at Fannie and Freddie)

Click the image & listen to James Dorn on
“Socialized Risks, Private Rewards” (at Fannie & Freddie)
Click the image & listen to James Dorn on “Socialized Risks, Private Rewards” (at Fannie & Freddie)
This is NOT a time for panic and haste!
SHAME on Paulson & Bernanke for caving in to hysteria!

Click here for the primary post on why this bailout is a TERRIBLE idea.
Click here to learn what caused this housing mess.


700 Billion Dollar Bailout - Credit Crunch? Where?

All charts were updated on 2/21/09.

Some of the data reveal a sudden surge in lending after the bailout was approved. Perhaps this injection of liquidity resulted, to some extent, in additional lending. But, an unprecedented “credit crunch”? The data indicate it simply NEVER EXISTED! PERIOD!

My fellow Americans, we’ve been HAD!


Click here for my previous commentary on this $700 billion bailout.

Today, 9/24/08, the talk at the Senate Banking Committee was mostly about the so-called “Credit Crunch”.

Again, lots of allegations and anecdotes flew. Again, there was NO HARD DATA presented!

Again, the data which I have access to does NOT support the thesis that a $700 Billion Bailout is needed!

WHERE is the Credit Crunch? Why are present circumstances, in the words of Paulson, “unprecedented”? If Secretary Paulson has more recent data than I have access to, PRESENT IT! The following is the most recent data which I have access to:


Total Consumer Credit Outstanding
(Through the end of December)
Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source
Sorry Paulson, nothing “unprecedented” here!
Click here for a broader view of the same metric.


Consumer (Individual) Loans at All Commercial Banks
(Through January 1st)
Click the image to enlarge & view the source:

Sorry Paulson, nothing “unprecedented” here!
Click here for a broader view of the same metric.


Commercial and Industrial Loans of Weekly Reporting Large Commercial Banks
(Through February 4th)
Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source
Sorry Paulson, nothing “unprecedented” here!
Click here for a broader view of the same metric.


Total Commercial and Industrial Loans Including Foreign Related Institutions
(Through February 4th)
Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source
Sorry Paulson, nothing “unprecedented” here!
Click here for a broader view of the same metric.


Commercial and Industrial Loans at All Commercial Banks
(Through January 1st)
Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source
Sorry Paulson, nothing “unprecedented” here!
Click here for a broader view of the same metric.


Real Estate Loans at All Commercial Banks
(Through January 1st)
Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source
Sorry Paulson, nothing “unprecedented” here!
Click here for a broader view of the same metric.


Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks
(Through February 4th)
Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source
Sorry Paulson, nothing “unprecedented” here!
Click here for a broader view of the same metric.


Click here and here for the latest data on each chart.


Secretary Paulson - WHERE is the
“unprecedented” Credit Crunch?

Was it the “TED Spread” that spooked you?


Please Register Your Opinion -
Please contact your representatives and tell them you oppose this bailout!

From the above link, I suggest you copy and paste the following into the form:

I oppose the $700 billion dollar mortgage bailout because the data do not support the thesis:
http://sbvor.blogspot.com/2008/09/700-billion-dollar-bailout-for-what.html
http://sbvor.blogspot.com/2008/09/700-billion-dollar-bailout-credit.html

Act NOW! Congress will probably vote in just a few days (at MOST)!

700 Billion Dollar Bailout - For WHAT?

Please register your opinion with your representatives.
Please ask your friends & neighbors to do the same.
It is QUICK and EASY! See the bottom of this post.

Quoting Treasury Secretary Paulson in his statement
before the Senate Banking Committee on 9/23/08
(Emphasis Mine):

“ We must now take further, decisive action to fundamentally and comprehensively address the root cause of this turmoil.

And that root cause is the housing correction which has resulted in illiquid mortgage-related assets that are choking off the flow of credit which is so vitally important to our economy.”
Click the image & read the rest:
Click the image & read the rest


If “the housing correction” is the best excuse Paulson can muster for a $700 billion bailout, I say NO WAY!

1) Last July, I commented on Media Housing Hysteria vs. Their Own Source.

2) The following represents the latest data for Median Sales Price of Existing Homes:

Click the image to enlarge:
Click the image to enlarge
I personally created and uploaded the above chart.
The data used in the above chart are found in
this spreadsheet downloaded from this page.


Contrary to media hysteria, the data clearly demonstrate that this “housing correction” is already bouncing back WITHOUT any $700 billion bailout!

2A) 10/5/08 - Update to the original post of 9/24/08:

The latest data indicate home prices declined again in July and August. However, February still represents a bottom. New data will be released around 10/25/08.


Click the image to enlarge:
Click the image to enlarge
I personally created and uploaded the above chart.
The data used in the above chart are found in
this spreadsheet downloaded from this page.


3) Furthermore, there are very few states where there existed any “housing correction” at all! The condition of the housing market in each individual state can be graphically verified in the previous link. Why should the entire nation pay for the follies of a very few states?

As an example, here is California in blue and Florida in red mapped against Colorado in green:

Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source


4) Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve on the condition of the nation’s banks does not seem to justify a $700 billion bailout:

Click the image to enlarge & view the source:
Click the image to enlarge & view the source


5) Although some large financial institutions have failed this year, the following data present further evidence suggesting that the overall banking system is not in crisis:

On 9/19/08 CNN reported the 12th bank failure of the year. According to the data presented by CNN, 1/10th of 1% of the banks insured by FDIC have failed this year (12 failures, 8,451 insured).

From this FDIC page, I produced a detailed report including the total assets associated with each failure for each year.

From that report:

1) 2008 - 11 Bank failures totaling $40,443,315,000 in assets.
The 12th failure, reported on 9/19/08, is not yet in their database.

2) 1989 - 534 Bank failures totaling $164,180,003,000 in assets.

Note: At the FDIC link, the assets are reported in thousands of dollars.

Update: On 9/26/08 it was reported that Washington Mutual, with assets of $307 Billion, “failed”. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. seized Washington Mutual. But, WaMu’s assets were sold to JP Morgan Chase in a transaction which did not cost the FDIC anything.

What really counts in these failures is not the “Total Assets” but the “Estimated Loss” paid out by the FDIC. That metric is not yet available for 2008. But, we know two things for sure:

* The “Estimated Loss” to the FDIC cannot exceed the Total Assets.

* Washington Mutual will add a grand total of $0.00 to the “Estimated Loss” metric.


6) The condition of the overall economy also does not support this draconian $700 billion bailout.

The Conclusion -
Sorry Secretary Paulson - NO SALE! You are welcome to try again. But, next time, SHOW ME SOME DATA!

Also See -
For LOTS more information, click here & see my original reaction to this proposed bailout.

Please Register Your Opinion -
Please contact your representatives and tell them you oppose this bailout!

From the above link, I suggest you copy and paste the following into the form:

I oppose the $700 billion dollar mortgage bailout because the data do not support the thesis:
http://sbvor.blogspot.com/2008/09/700-billion-dollar-bailout-for-what.html

Act NOW! Congress will probably vote in just a few days (at MOST)!

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

FBI Probing for Fraud at Fannie and Freddie

Quoting Reuters
(I inserted the link):

“The FBI is investigating Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac… and their senior executives for potential mortgage fraud”
Click the image & read the rest:
Click the image & read the rest
Click here to read the primary post on this topic
(and all the rest).

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