Saturday, January 1, 2000

Sea Levels Over Time

Updated 11/25/12

First, quoting Dr. Dorthe Dahl-Jensen:
(I inserted the link):
“during the Eemian period [the previous interglacial warming period]… the global sea level was 4-5 m higher than at present”
IF sea levels were to rise another 4-5 meters (13-16 feet), that would ONLY be consistent with the perfectly natural, perfectly normal, cyclical events of the past. However, primarily because the current interglacial is not likely to meet, much less exceed, the temperatures of the previous interglacial, it is extremely unlikely that will happen.

In fact, I am quite confident that even the predictions from the IPCC of a 7” to 23” inch increase in sea level by 2100 are excessively high. See Table 3.1 on page 45 of this IPCC link. One of many reasons why I am confident of this is the fact that the IPCC computer models upon which those predictions are predicated have -- by NOAA’s own standards -- been officially invalidated. The empirical evidence suggests the planet will not be warming anywhere near as rapidly as the IPCC expected it to.

Peer reviewed science from May of 2011 noted that:
"Without sea-level acceleration, the 20th-century sea-level trend of 1.7 mm/y would produce a rise of only approximately 0.15 m [6 inches] from 2010 to 2100"
That study found (globally) "small sea-level decelerations" (suggesting that 6 inches may overestimate the likely increase in sea level.)

More science -- published in February of 2012 -- reaffirms that finding and lists various other studies reaching similar conclusions. Click here for the summary. Click here for the peer reviewed paper.

Furthermore, the individual who may be the world’s foremost authority on sea levels tells us that the industrial age has had NO IMPACT on global sea level.

In any case, to think that we are capable of micromanaging sea level changes is the height of arrogant, ignorant folly. Read on.

Sea Levels Since the Last Glacial Maximum
Click the chart to enlarge it & learn more:
Click the chart to enlarge it & learn more
Pay special attention to “Meltwater Pulse 1A”.

GISS - The Alarmist View of 4 Meltwater Pulses
Click the chart to learn more:

 Click the chart to learn more
The lesson is that rapid changes in sea level neither require nor imply human perturbation! We should expect sea levels to rise (or fall) and we should be prepared to cope with it. We should NOT expect to be capable of preventing it! Sea Levels have risen 120 meters (394 feet) just since the last Glacial Maximum. We cannot control this!

Sea Levels Over the Last 8 Thousand Years
Click the chart to learn more:
Click the chart to learn more

Recent Sea Level Rise
Click the chart to learn more:
Click the chart to learn more

No matter what we do, sea levels will probably continue to rise (slightly) over the next 100 years. We will not have caused it and we cannot prevent it. It is extremely unlikely that we will see anything like the past Meltwater Pulses.

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