Saturday, January 1, 2000

Temperatures Over Time - Part II


Updated 1/19/2017
All Vostok charts updated to include data through 2016
Also note RSS Data (last chart) showing CAGW theory-falsification

In the words of Princeton physicist Dr. Will Happer:
“The earth's climate is changing now, as it always has. There is no evidence that the changes differ in any qualitative way from those of the past.”
Climate alarmists use all sorts of deceptions and hyperboles in describing the surface temperatures observed since 1998.

But, even some self-described Liberals in the media are beginning to understand how laughably unreliable the “official” surface temperature measurements are. Thomas Fuller notes (I inserted the link):
“Anthony Watts of Watt's Up With That has surveyed 80% of the USHCN surface temperature measurement sites and found that only 11% of them meet siting specifications.”
Click here for a lengthy series of detailed posts on this topic from Anthony Watts.

Click here for additional directly cited peer reviewed science documenting problems with surface temperature measurements.

Here, I use solid peer reviewed science combined with current rigorous ongoing observational data at a single reliable surface location to debunk the alarmist view of temperatures observed since 1998.

I personally created each of the following charts - data sources are listed below the last chart.

Current temperatures can only be put into proper perspective by looking back at least 140,000 years ago to the previous perfectly natural interglacial warming period (known as the Eemian). Vostok, Antarctica is one of the few places in the world where we have extremely accurate temperature data dating back 423,000 years as well as ongoing records of monthly mean temperatures. That makes Vostok the perfect place to put current temperatures into proper perspective.

52 Years of Temperature Data at Vostok
Click the image to enlarge it:

Click to enlarge

10 Thousand Years of Temperature Data at Vostok
Click the image to enlarge it:



140 Thousand Years of Temperature Data at Vostok
Click the image to enlarge it:



423 Thousand Years of Temperature Data at Vostok
Click the image to enlarge it:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gxXt4azi954/WIEfGRUxDHI/AAAAAAAADbI/_8FLSgkrACgkI7kqLlwqFyQIrHhLiRGhQCLcB/s1600/Vostok-400Kf.jpg
 
The above chart demonstrates that the temperatures witnessed in the last decade do not even come close to the (very consistent) maximum temperatures witnessed in EACH of the previous FOUR perfectly normal, perfectly natural interglacial warming periods.

2 Thousand Year Warming Trend at Vostok
There is NOTHING unusual about the latest warming!
Click the image to enlarge it:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fIdJfSH3Jgs/VtSIobuVKKI/AAAAAAAADY4/QTRpmskw1fI/s1600/Vostok_2K-01.jpg
Note -- in the above chart -- the height of the various peaks above the black linear trend line. There have been at least five periods -- just in the last 2,000 years -- when a warming trend was further above the linear trend line than what is demonstrated in the warming of the 20th century.

Data Sources:

52 years of recent temperatures at Vostok:
British Antarctic Survey - National Environmental Research Council

Vostok Ice Core Data to 423,000 years ago:
This file downloaded from this page (Click on "deutnat.txt").

To verify that the reference point for the Vostok Ice Core study is -55.5C, click here, then click on “click to view more”.

Discussion:

Recall that, within the larger context of an ongoing multi-million year Ice Age, we are currently experiencing one of about 100 perfectly natural, perfectly normal interglacial warming periods known to have occurred in the last 2.5 million years.


Click this image for a global perspective:
Note: In the above chart, we see that -- despite a strong (and perfectly natural) el Nino in the Pacific causing a *temporary* upward spike on the chart (much like 97/98) -- WoodForTrees.org documents that the most recent RSS satellite data now demonstrate a theory-falsifying 18 years, 8 months of global cooling (from 6/1997 through 1/2016):


In the previous link, the slope of the ordinary least squares linear trend line is -0.000112492 per year (see the bottom of the following link to the raw data):


By NOAA's own standards, ANY 15 year period without warming invalidates (with a 95% degree of certainty) ALL of the IPCC computer models (the sole foundation for all of the rest of the global warming hysteria mongering):

"The [computer model] simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends [in global temperatures] for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate."


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