Sunday, July 6, 2008

World Oil Balance vs. Price

Updated 7/19/09
This post is a subset of a more comprehensive post
which quantifies why we should “Drill Here, Drill Now”.

For 4 out of 5 quarters (Q4 of 2006 - Q4 of 2007), global demand for crude oil exceeded global supply. In response, spot prices for crude oil rose steeply and rapidly.

In Q1 of 2008, global supply of crude oil significantly exceeded global demand. By Q3 of 2008, spot prices for crude oil began to drop. There appears to be a consistent 2 quarter lag time in the price response to the balance (or imbalance) between global demand and global supply.

The Balance Between World
Crude Oil Supply & Demand vs. Price
Click the image to enlarge it:

Click the image to enlarge it
I personally created and uploaded the above chart using these sources:
Global Supply and Demand - this spreadsheet downloaded from this page
(6/10/08 version through 6/11/09 version)
Spot price of oil - this spreadsheet downloaded from this page

Note: The supply/demand imbalance never exceeded 0.8 million barrels per day (about the amount ANWR alone could have been producing if ANWR had been approved decades ago). It is reasonable to say that ANWR alone could have entirely prevented the price spike we saw in the summer of 2008.

Note the short term and long term demand trends.
Click the image to enlarge it:

Click the image to enlarge it
Source: Click here

World Growth in Demand For Oil
(Updated on 7/19/09)
Click the image to enlarge it:

Click the image to enlarge it
Source: Click here

World Growth in Non-OPEC Supply of Oil
Note the “contribution” to supply growth from the United States
(Updated on 7/19/09)
Click the image to enlarge it:

Click the image to enlarge it
Source: Click here

Click here for a great deal more detail and professional analysis
(from the June 11, 2009 report).

Click here for the most current release of that report.


OBloodyHell said...

> re: "World Growth in Non-OPEC Supply of Oil"

Does that classify oil taken out of the ground by China off the shore from Cuba as Asian oil or North American oil?

Just wondering. Is this where oil is taken out of the ground, or refined? Or something else?

OBloodyHell said...

> Re: World Growth in Demand For Oil

I think this is interesting is contrast to:

a) Everyone else -vs- USA

b) To the other graph by-continent of supply creation. A year from now we'll be using less oil. The same is not true for anyone else. We'll still be eating it, but others will be eating it even more.

SBVOR said...


You raise a good question (re Cuba and China).

I have not found an answer to that question in the report. But, I’ve only read selected portions of it.

My guess would be that the chart merely shows how much oil was removed from which region without regard for what country removed it.

Hot Topics:

BEST Data - No Warming Over Last Decade
The AMO as a Driver of Climate Change
Fact check - The wealthy already pay more taxes
Rare Earth Elements Spell Doom for Green Fantasies
Wikipedia’s Climate Doctor
ClimateGate - The latest updates
Dr. Tim Ball on ClimateGate - The end of AGW hysteria?
ClimateGate: The Musical - Hide The Decline!
Lindzen and Choi SHATTER the IPCC Computer models!
It’s OFFICIAL! We HAVE elected our own Hugo Chavez!
Health Care “Reform”
Cap & Trade - It’s just a giant tax (on EVERYBODY)
The Radicals in the White House
ACORN - The truth
Transparency - Obama promised it. So, where is it?
The Cause of the Housing Debacle
Fiscal Responsibility - In Obama’s Fantasy World
Atlas Shrugged: From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years
Iraq War Media Deceptions 101 - Why the Iraq invasion was justified and necessary
Climate Change 101 - Learn what the SCIENCE says about the biggest hoax EVER!
Obama - on Climate Change
Obama’s Climate Czar - The most dangerous politician in the United States
Obama’s Climate Czar - Her Socialist revolution has begun
Compare the current recession to previous recessions
Obama - Historic & Catastrophic!
Is Obama a Socialist? You BETCHA!
Makers & Takers - Spread the wealth
Obama = International Crisis
The economic case against Obama
The comprehensive case against Obama
The deficit case against the Dems
A Liberal Supermajority? Watch Out!
Examine the series you should have read before voting!
Maggie’s Totalitarian Political Religion
“Kill him!” - Just another media lie?
Journalistic Integrity? - WHERE?
The post about the TED Spread
Save the nation from the Entitlement binge!
Market Reaction to $700 Billion Bailout Vote
Drill Here, Drill Now - Quantitative Facts
ANWR - Drill There, Drill Now
ANWR Matters - Here’s why
Coal Liquefaction (Liquid Fuels From Coal)
The Ethanol Debacle
Pickens Plan - Don’t Fall For it!
Energy Tomorrow Radio - GOOD Stuff!
Economic Forecast


Blog Archive