Thursday, November 3, 2011

In October, Global Temps in Free Fall

In this post, I further substantiate my assertion that the (perfectly natural) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has been the primary driver of global climate change over the last century.

Quoting Dr. Roy Spencer:
“The Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and tropics have all cooled substantially, consistent with the onset of another La Nina, with the tropics now back below the 1981-2010 average…

the temperature free-fall continues so I predict November will see another substantial drop in global temperatures…

taking a line from our IPCC brethren… While any single month’s drop in global temperatures cannot be blamed on climate change, it is still the kind of behavior we expect to see more often in a cooling world.”
Click the image & read the rest:
Click the image & read the rest
Click here to enlarge the image.

Quoting Dr. Roy Spencer again
(describing the black line on the chart below):
“The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.”
Click the image & read the rest:

Click here to enlarge the image.

Now, in that last image, the black line may not (in Dr. Spencer’s view) hold any predictive value. But, it is a perfect fit with the AMO index for that period. Owing to the means whereby it is calculated, the black line lags the AMO index by pretty much exactly 10 years. In other words, the AMO index bottomed out in 1976 and peaked in 1998. The black line bottomed out in 1986 and peaked in 2008.

Click here and examine my assessment of how the AMO killed the CAGW cult.

Click here and examine how the newly released BEST data demonstrate that the AMO has been the primary driver of climate change over the last century.

If the AMO index remains consistent, why would we not expect global temperatures to continue to reflect the pattern of the AMO index? That would suggest a continued flat trend (in general) through about 2018 followed by about 30 years of substantial cooling.


DudeinDenver said...

Love the AMO correlation, "SB." But a point of curiousity: As a lover of Cause and Effect, do we have any insight into what drives the temp changes OF the AMO? Is there a correlation with Svensmark's work? Not looking for a doctoral thesis here...maybe you can direct me to a website or two? Thanks!

SBVOR said...


My guess is that the AMO, PDO and various other ocean oscillations are very roughly analogous to the the cycles of dimictic lakes (but on a much larger and longer scale):

The Meridional Overturning Circulation might be a driving force behind the ocean oscillations:

How's them Occupy Denver idiots treating you? Are they braving the cold?

DudeinDenver said...

Thanks for the guidance, SB. The second link to the Oregon State discussion of the MOC didn't work,
but its discussion in Wiki was very useful. And I hadn't heard of "dimictic lake" before.

It will be interesting if/when someone developes a "Grand Unified Theory" of climate...incorporating Milankovitch Cycles, Svensmark's cosmic rays work (some very nice correlations there), the 11-year solar cycle, the "real" solar energy radiation budget, the long-term effects of the thermohaline circulation, etc. But I doubt anyone could get a grant if it would show that the signature of
CO2 is buried so deeply in the climate cycle noise!

Meanwhile, as humanity sits in it's most beneficent intra-glacial period, it rails at "how badly mankind is screwing up the climate?" What incredible conceit!
(props to Michael Crichton) But, sadly, totally understandable when you "follow the money!"

Haven't paid too much attention to the Occupiers here...their numbers seem to be dwindling and media attention seems to be lessening. It will be interesting to see the effect on their numbers when we get some REAL cold in town. Can't help but wonder if they'll have to resort to destruction or violence to regain the local media's attention, a la Oakland. Time will tell.

And thank you for your time!

SBVOR said...


1) Thanks, always a pleasure.

2) Yeah, it's increasingly (and surprisingly) clear to me that anthropogenic CO2 has had little to no (net) effect on temperatures over the last century. It's possible that what tiny little effect CO2 might have had has been entirely counteracted by the observed negative water vapor feedback.

3) I just confirmed the Oregon State discussion of the MOC link works for me.

That link requires the Adobe PDF reader. Do you have that installed?

DudeinDenver said...

Oops..."interglacial period," not intra-. Dooh!

DudeinDenver said...

Yep, the OSU MOC link opened up nicely from your subsequent post. Saved it. Thanks! Hey, I bet YOU could create the Grand Unified Theory of Climate in your spare access to a super computer somewhere in The Boat?

And don't most of the current climate models "assume" a POSITIVE water vapor feedback from CO2?

If nothing else, models always prove what the biases of the modeler are...

SBVOR said...


Yes, all the IPCC models assume a strongly positive water vapor feedback. In fact, without that assumed feedback, nobody would have ever been able to whip up even a marginal concern, much less the CAGW hysteria.

Even the most hysterical Climate Scientist will freely admit that anthropogenic CO2 alone is utterly incapable of producing enough warming to cause even marginal concern.

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