Monday, January 1, 2001
Saturday, January 1, 2000
Temperatures Over Time - Part II
All Vostok charts updated to include data through 2016
In the words of Princeton physicist Dr. Will Happer:
“The earth's climate is changing now, as it always has. There is no evidence that the changes differ in any qualitative way from those of the past.”Climate alarmists use all sorts of deceptions and hyperboles in describing the surface temperatures observed since 1998.
But, even some self-described Liberals in the media are beginning to understand how laughably unreliable the “official” surface temperature measurements are. Thomas Fuller notes (I inserted the link):
“Anthony Watts of Watt's Up With That has surveyed 80% of the USHCN surface temperature measurement sites and found that only 11% of them meet siting specifications.”Click here for a lengthy series of detailed posts on this topic from Anthony Watts.
Click here for additional directly cited peer reviewed science documenting problems with surface temperature measurements.
Here, I use solid peer reviewed science combined with current rigorous ongoing observational data at a single reliable surface location to debunk the alarmist view of temperatures observed since 1998.
I personally created each of the following charts - data sources are listed below the last chart.
Current temperatures can only be put into proper perspective by looking back at least 140,000 years ago to the previous perfectly natural interglacial warming period (known as the Eemian). Vostok, Antarctica is one of the few places in the world where we have extremely accurate temperature data dating back 423,000 years as well as ongoing records of monthly mean temperatures. That makes Vostok the perfect place to put current temperatures into proper perspective.
Click the image to enlarge it:
10 Thousand Years of Temperature Data at Vostok
Click the image to enlarge it:
140 Thousand Years of Temperature Data at Vostok
Click the image to enlarge it:
423 Thousand Years of Temperature Data at Vostok
Click the image to enlarge it:
There is NOTHING unusual about the latest warming!
Click the image to enlarge it:
Data Sources:
52 years of recent temperatures at Vostok:
British Antarctic Survey - National Environmental Research Council
Vostok Ice Core Data to 423,000 years ago:
This file downloaded from this page (Click on "deutnat.txt").
To verify that the reference point for the Vostok Ice Core study is -55.5C, click here, then click on “click to view more”.
Discussion:
Recall that, within the larger context of an ongoing multi-million year Ice Age, we are currently experiencing one of about 100 perfectly natural, perfectly normal interglacial warming periods known to have occurred “in the last 2.5 million years”.
Note: In the above chart, we see that -- despite a strong (and perfectly natural) el Nino in the Pacific causing a *temporary* upward spike on the chart (much like 97/98) -- WoodForTrees.org documents that the most recent RSS satellite data now demonstrate a theory-falsifying 18 years, 8 months of global cooling (from 6/1997 through 1/2016):
In the previous link, the slope of the ordinary least squares linear trend line is -0.000112492 per year (see the bottom of the following link to the raw data):
By NOAA's own standards, ANY 15 year period without warming invalidates (with a 95% degree of certainty) ALL of the IPCC computer models (the sole foundation for all of the rest of the global warming hysteria mongering):
"The [computer model] simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends [in global temperatures] for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate."
Atmospheric CO2 Over Time
Quoting award winning Princeton University physicist Dr. Will Happer:
“Many people don’t realize that over geological time, we’re really in a CO2 famine now.”Atmospheric CO2 Over Time
Click the chart to enlarge it:
I created the above chart.
Data Sources:
Current CO2 level (387 ppm at the time the chart was created):
This NOAA page.
CO2 by 2100 - IPCC Absolute Worst Case Scenario (790 ppm):
IPCC 2007 Synthesis Report, Page 67, Table 5.1.
Historic CO2 levels:
R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III), as published in the American Journal of Science, Vol. 301, February 2001, P.182-204.
The raw data from the above peer reviewed science was taken from this file downloaded from this NOAA page.
I followed the instructions contained in Geocarb III for translating RCO2 into ppm.
Atmospheric CO2 Over Time
Combined With Temperature Over Time
Click the chart to learn more:
Data Sources:
Historic CO2 levels:
The same source as the previous chart.
Note: The above chart somehow calculated lower CO2 ppm levels than I did. But, I followed the instructions contained in Geocarb III to the letter.
Historic Temperatures:
The Paleomap Project by Dr. C.R. Scotese, a PhD geologist at the University of Texas at Arlington.
Now, look back 460 million years ago and explode the MYTH that we are on the precipice of some mythical “tipping point” of unstoppable and catastrophic global warming. The FACT is that the Ordovician Ice Age climate was very similar to THE CURRENT ICE AGE!
One reason we never reach this mythical “tipping point” is because every additional molecule of CO2 has exponentially LESS warming effect than the one which preceded it. Even the alarmists acknowledge this. CO2 absorbs energy at specific and relatively narrow wavelengths. Once all the energy at those wavelengths is absorbed, additional CO2 has NO IMPACT! This is best illustrated by three different approximations of the total warming impact of CO2 from 0ppm to 600ppm (roughly double pre-industrial levels and roughly 1.6 times current levels). The previous two links, are from this page. For more on that, see this discussion of Climate Sensitivity.
As this post demonstrates, it is reasonable to assume that the industrial revolution has increased atmospheric CO2 by about 86ppm. In order to reach the roughly 5,000ppm present during the Ordovician Ice Age, we would have to replicate the entire industrial revolution 54 times over! (5,000-386)/86=54. Obviously, that is not going to happen.
Many fret about the impact of CO2 on “biodiversity”. Well, 530 million years ago, when CO2 was about 22 times higher than today, the world experienced the single largest explosion in biodiversity this planet has EVER seen! That explosion is known as The Cambrian Explosion. Click here and here and here for substantiations.
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