“The NBER has not yet determined the end of the recession that began in December 2007. The date 2009-07-01 has been substituted in graphs as an estimate. This estimate is based on a statistical model for dating business cycle turning points developed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger (A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49). For more information, see
http://www.uoregon.edu/~jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm
Either way, the unemployment forecast is not encouraging.
But, given the Dim policies, it was entirely predictable.
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