Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Stu - Here's my response

On an unnamed climate hysteria propaganda blog, a commentator named Stu asked me to comment on this post by Anthony Watts. The unnamed host of this propaganda blog twice declined to publish my response. Of course, the host could decide to publish my comment at any time in the future. Such are the silly childish games played at that site.

Well, Stu, here’s my twice censored reply (verbatim):

I read only what Watts posted.

Like Watts, I would approach this with caution. It seems to suggest that -- if we witness another cooling trend similar to roughly 1940-1979 -- we might see a drop in atmospheric CO2 levels. It’s possible, but I doubt it -- I’ll get back to that shortly.

Beyond that, the study seems to be fundamentally in agreement with what is born out in every ice core study -- that during each of the previous 6 interglacial warming periods, temperature has primarily driven CO2, not the other way around.

This is not to deny the physics of (the logarithmic nature) of CO2 energy absorption, only to put into proper perspective the primary relationship between temperature and CO2. As temperatures rise, CO2 is released from the oceans -- with, on average, an 800 year lag. As temperatures drop, CO2 is reabsorbed into the oceans -- with, on average a 2,000 to 4,000 year lag. Given how slowly CO2 is reabsorbed, I doubt a 40 year cooling trend would significantly drop the atmospheric CO2 levels.

The fact that CO2 remains elevated for 2,000 to 4,000 years AFTER temperatures plunge into the next glacial period speaks to just how weak a forcing factor CO2 really is -- relative to other forcing factors.

Click here to fully substantiate each of the above assertions via directly cited peer reviewed science.

Now, if that study plays into the current fear mongering over ocean pH, I say this:

1) Dr. Lubos Motl addresses that baloney as well as anybody. It’s hard to get worked up when even the IPCC predicts the oceans will remain on the alkaline side of a neutral pH (7.8) even by 2100, even if we do NOTHING to reduce CO2 emissions.

2) For those who fret over coral reefs, click here and begin to grasp just how resilient and adaptable life on this planet really is.


SBVOR said...

P.S.) Click here for a far more comprehensive examination of the ocean acidification hysteria.

Stu said...

Thanks for responding, but I was really after a comment on Beck's work. But no matter, it was interesting nonetheless.

The chemical measurements are reasonably accurate, but horribly unrepresentative of anything other than local boundary layer conditions (definitely not representative of the free troposphere).

That temperature drives CO2 on long timescales of hundreds to thousands of years does not preclude CO2 being a driver in the current scenario, where the increase has little to do with rising temperatures (although I have seen people argue that the current rise is due to the MWP! You have to ignore a lot of evidence to reach that conclusion...).

On a related note, if CO2 was not being added anthropogenically, then yes a cooling over several decades might produce a small dip in CO2 concentration.

However, as the increase (which is mostly independent of temperature) shows no signs of slowing soon, even if there is cooling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to rise proportional to the rate at which it is added by human activity.

When entering an ice age, the fact that CO2 falls slowly (and doesn't prevent the ice age) only goes to show that the changes in albedo are a bigger forcing. AGW doesn't rely on CO2 being the biggest forcing possible, only that it isn't a negligible forcing.

Hot Topics:

BEST Data - No Warming Over Last Decade
The AMO as a Driver of Climate Change
Fact check - The wealthy already pay more taxes
Rare Earth Elements Spell Doom for Green Fantasies
Wikipedia’s Climate Doctor
ClimateGate - The latest updates
Dr. Tim Ball on ClimateGate - The end of AGW hysteria?
ClimateGate: The Musical - Hide The Decline!
Lindzen and Choi SHATTER the IPCC Computer models!
It’s OFFICIAL! We HAVE elected our own Hugo Chavez!
Health Care “Reform”
Cap & Trade - It’s just a giant tax (on EVERYBODY)
The Radicals in the White House
ACORN - The truth
Transparency - Obama promised it. So, where is it?
The Cause of the Housing Debacle
Fiscal Responsibility - In Obama’s Fantasy World
Atlas Shrugged: From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years
Iraq War Media Deceptions 101 - Why the Iraq invasion was justified and necessary
Climate Change 101 - Learn what the SCIENCE says about the biggest hoax EVER!
Obama - on Climate Change
Obama’s Climate Czar - The most dangerous politician in the United States
Obama’s Climate Czar - Her Socialist revolution has begun
Compare the current recession to previous recessions
Obama - Historic & Catastrophic!
Is Obama a Socialist? You BETCHA!
Makers & Takers - Spread the wealth
Obama = International Crisis
The economic case against Obama
The comprehensive case against Obama
The deficit case against the Dems
A Liberal Supermajority? Watch Out!
Examine the series you should have read before voting!
Maggie’s Totalitarian Political Religion
“Kill him!” - Just another media lie?
Journalistic Integrity? - WHERE?
The post about the TED Spread
Save the nation from the Entitlement binge!
Market Reaction to $700 Billion Bailout Vote
Drill Here, Drill Now - Quantitative Facts
ANWR - Drill There, Drill Now
ANWR Matters - Here’s why
Coal Liquefaction (Liquid Fuels From Coal)
The Ethanol Debacle
Pickens Plan - Don’t Fall For it!
Energy Tomorrow Radio - GOOD Stuff!
Economic Forecast


Blog Archive