Saturday, December 11, 2010

The New Hysteria - No Cooling in Sight

Updated on 12/14/2010 to reflect corrections applied to the first link.

In a previous post, I postulated that:
“global temperatures will probably be generally flat for about another 18 years”
Other than the laughable propagandists at GISS, the alarmists seemingly agree. Gone are the predictions of an inexorable march of decade over decade warming. Instead, the new propaganda reads more like this quote:
“There is no plausible scenario in which (the Northwest) cools over the next 40 years”
I say 18 years, Dr. Mote says 40 years. But, it is implicit that we both agree we can anticipate at least 18 more years (on top of the previous 15 years) without any warming. The alarmists imply that man made global warming will then resume -- not bloody likely.

Common sense, peer reviewed science, historical evidence (and the AMO cycle) suggests we will see about 18 additional years of little or no temperature trend followed by decades of below average temperatures (and global cooling hysteria mongering). DUH!

Click here for some basic climate change science.
Click here to debunk the hysteria topic by topic.

13 comments:

chillguy33 said...

Cooling, should it occur is far more dangerous than warming. There is a substantial risk depending on solar activity of "little ice ages" which have occured repeatedly in human history and before. Much depends on the rate of ocean turn-over; however this appears to be harder to understand than cosmic ray induced low cloud formation.

Judging from the "Al Gore Effect" we are definitely headed for another Dalton Minimum at least; and this is better science than the preponderance of what has been available at massive cost for the last 25 years.

hypsithermal said...

Sorry. I forgot to mention, so much for "peer-reviewed" science.

Apparently it is so much excrement.

SBVOR said...

ChillGuy/Hypsithermal,

All available evidence does -- indeed -- indicate that warming is, on balance, beneficial and cooling is disastrous. In terms of human lives, warming is proven to be beneficial by a ratio of 121.4 to 1.

We will, no doubt, see another Dalton Minimum at some point. The question is when. I personally don't expect it within the next 30 years. But, I could be wrong.

hypsithermal said...

Yes, I have multiple personalities; or is my trigger finger just unreliable? Who can say.

The main point is this only: US government cannot run science; ergo it cannot fund science. World government is totally ridiculous. "That government is best, which governs least." Local government can make building zones; larger government cannot. Just this single main point, has been or should have been driven home by Al Gore et al.

This is the only blog I would propose such a comment. Which is from me a supreme compliment.

hypsithermal said...

Stuttering again,

whatever science comes from government is foul; or should be touched with a long stick.

I think we have it.

SBVOR said...

ChillGuy/Hypsithermal,

Thanks for the supreme compliment.

We are in agreement.

Case in point…
Quoting from this recent article in our local “newspaper”:

“If we can run a better model forward for a 50-year period, then the policymakers will be able to make more informed decisions.”

Science done for the sake of “policymakers” is not science at all -- it’s politics (especially when those same “policymakers” are funding the “science”).

Science done so that individuals can “make more informed decisions” is more my cup of tea (so to speak).

The “science” which this local project is examining is the lynchpin of the entire CAGW cabal. And, that lynchpin has recently crumbled. My deep fear here is that this particular government funded “science” will be far more concerned with restoring the now fully discredited CAGW cabal and will turn out to be about as corrupt as Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick fraud (a fraud for which Mann has been richly rewarded).

terrence said...

From Iceagenow.com:

" 11 Dec 10 - "Death rates are set to soar “scandalously” this winter as a new Arctic blast batters Britain with temperatures on a par with Siberia," says this article by Sarah Wescott.

Forecasters said temperatures could plummet to record lows in the next two weeks.

It could be the bitterest winter in a century, putting tens of thousands of vulnerable people at risk and leading to 12 deaths per hour.

"Millions of Britons are being forced to turn down their thermostats as gas and electricity prices spiral.

"Studies show a drop in temperature of just one degree is followed by 200 heart attacks. People aged between 75 and 84 and those with a history of heart disease appear to be most vulnerable.

"Jonathan Powell, senior forecaster with Positive Weather Solutions, said plummeting temperatures could even surpass the -27.2C (-17F) recorded in Braemar in 1982 – the coldest temperature in Britain.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/216765/Weather-35-000-deaths-fear-in-new-Arctic-blizza rds"

I think the UK would love to have some warming this winter. 35,000 cold related deaths in NOT a small number. I have not heard any warmist say that this coldest ever winter in the UK is caused by man-made global warming.

SBVOR said...

"I have not heard any warmist say that this coldest ever winter in the UK is caused by man-made global warming."

Give it time...
These days the CAGW alarmists blame anything which is even remotely unusual on CO2. I'm pretty sure somebody somewhere has already claimed this big chill was caused by CO2.

Click here for a (semi)complete list of things which alarmists have blamed on Global Warming. I've actually provided contributions to that list.

RICH said...

I am looking forward to moving up to Lake Winnepeasukee. For now, we just go up on the weekends.

Do you have any thoughts on this link containing ice "out" information for Lake Winnepeasukee -- dating all the way back to the late 1880's!?

What it shows me is that we came "out" of a little ice age, and are now in step with an ever-so-slight warming trend, which is very stable and certainly nothing to be alarmed about.

It also clearly shows that the "myth" of cooling in the 1970's was indeed fact.

SBVOR said...

RICH,

Yes, the data you link to are consistent with everything I have ever published, especially with respect to the temperature trends of the lower 48 states.

That said, the lower 48 are already in another cooling trend. You can click here and here for more on that.

From either link, you can also link to the NOAA page from which you can confirm the domestic cooling trend from roughly 1940 to 1979. Of course, one must also remember that the NOAA data demonstrably contain a warming bias of about 30%.

SBVOR said...

RICH,

Having reexamined the NOAA data, I now recall that the domestic cooling trend was even more pronounced from 1930 to 1979 (coincident with the plateau and decline in the AMO cycle of that period).

A charting of annual means from 1930 to 1960 shows an absolute flat line temperature trend (coincident with the AMO plateau). But, a charting of annual means from 1930 to 1979 shows a rather sharp decline (coincident with the AMO decline from about 1960 to 1979). If one were to compare that period to our current condition, we are at about 1942. That would suggest a flat temperature trend for about another 18 years. At that point, temperatures will likely decline rather sharply (globally).

NOAA reports 1934 as the third warmest year domestically. After one considers the peer reviewed science documenting a 30% warming bias in the data, it is pretty certain that 1934 was actually the warmest year domestically.

RICH said...

One of the reasons that AGW still has traction (in all this ice) is because the alarmists are so damn stubborn they refuse to admit that they were wrong.

UK: Coldest December since records began

LMAO!!! And the lunacy continues...

SBVOR said...

RICH,

I believe that -- for the overwhelming majority of the alarmists -- this was never about Global Warming or saving the planet. These thugs had one agenda and one agenda only -- the implementation of a centrally planned Socialist economy on a global scale.

In fact, at least one “expert” within the IPCC has freely admitted that the only real agenda was the forcible global redistribution of wealth.

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