(Note: Seth wrote this about one year ago):
“An analysis of global temperatures by independent statisticians shows the Earth is still warming and not cooling as some global warming skeptics are claiming.”Where to begin in debunking this nonsense? There are sooo many entry points to choose from, sooo many easy angles of attack. Let’s examine the top three angles of attack:
1) Cherry pick your timeframe and you can prove any thesis you want.
The climate is constantly changing and it is easy enough to cherry pick some timeframe which “proves” your preferred thesis. This is the most common “trick” of all in the climate alarmist community of snake oil salesmen.
Anybody who understands glacial/interglacial cycles and the Milankovitch Cycles which drive them knows that the best trend line to examine would cover at least a large majority of the entire Holocene (the current interglacial warming period).
When we look at the best studies covering that timeframe, we find that both the Arctic AND the Antarctic are experiencing an on-going, uninterrupted 10,000 year cooling trend which shows NO SIGNS of abating.
The citation links and more details are found here and here.
So, there you have it -- the most relevant time period shows that the planet has been cooling for a very long time now (and -- recent warming notwithstanding -- continues to do so).
2) Garbage In/Garbage Out
That angle was covered quite nicely here. That source also cited my blog -- thank you very much!
3) Currently cooling or just not warming?
That’s a fine line. But, even the very most prominent alarmists (relying upon the most compromised data) admit that the planet has not been warming for quite some time now:
The alarmists at NOAA admit there has been no global warming since 1998:
“The trend in the ENSO-related component for 1999–2008 is +0.08±0.07°C decade, fully accounting for the overall observed trend. The trend after removing ENSO (the "ENSO-adjusted" trend) is 0.00°±0.05°C decade.”NOAA further admits that:
“The [computer model] simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends [in global temperatures] for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”Dr. Phil Jones [of ClimateGate infamy] has now admitted that there has been no statistically significant global warming in the last 15 years. Click here for a more technical description of this mathematical analysis from PhD physicist Dr. Luboš Motl.
Therefore, by NOAA’s own standards, the IPCC computer models -- the SOLE SOURCE of ALL climate change hysteria mongering -- have been officially invalidated!
Additionally, peer reviewed science from May of 2008 suggests that:
“global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade”It looks like we’re in for a NOAA/IPCC busting 25 years (or more) without any warming!
Click here to further challenge the IPCC computer models.
4) Relevancy? Alarmists are notorious for asking all the wrong questions and providing utterly irrelevant “answers”.
Does it really matter whether the planet is currently warming or currently cooling? Isn’t the real question whether current temperatures and current trends are -- in ANY way -- even remotely unusual?
The answer is that peer reviewed science -- all across the board -- clearly demonstrates that there is nothing even remotely unusual about ANY of the current temperatures or ANY of the current trends. To prove that, visit either or both of the links below:
Click here & debunk climate hysteria topic by topic.
2 comments:
Thanks for the link!
Harrison,
My pleasure...
You made the case quite well.
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